Indian stock market could not hold its early gain on Friday. In the morning the Asian market Index was trading at mixed, Sgx Nifty Index was trading around 9 points down. The benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex opened flat to positive and touched days high around 12 pm but profit booking was seen in the post-lunch session. Nifty and Sensex dragged 35.20 and 86.88 points respectively at the end whereas Bank nifty fell 129.10 points and closed at 30587.40.
Bank Nifty share price on Friday:
Bank Nifty share price opened at 30789.75 on last Friday,73.20 points higher and closed at 30716.55. During the day the Bank Nifty was volatile and has shown a movement of 323 points. Almost all Pvt Banks were losers on Friday, IndusInd, Axis, HDFC, Kotak are the losers whereas Yes Bank, Federal Bank, PNB, RBL, ICICI, and SBI are the gainers in Bank Nifty today.
Indian Stock Market Last week
As discussed on our last report that the budget would decide the direction of the Indian Stock Market, exactly we have witnessed the same. On a Weekly basis, both Nifty and Sensex dragged 258.65 and 777.16 points respectively. Bank nifty share price also fell from 31475.80 to 30601.45 which is 874.35 points in last week. Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices also fell 383 and 124 points respectively during the week. On a Sectoral basis, Auto, Cement, Metal, Pharma and Telecom indices ended in red while some buying was seen in Oil & Gas, Consumer nondurable and Pvt Banking space in last week.
In Nifty 50 indices, the top five gainers are Vedanta, Sun Pharma, Yes Bank, Adani Port, and Hero Motorco. The top five losers in Nifty 50 indices are Titan, Bajaj Fin, Indiabulls Housing Bajaj Fin, and ONGC. The top gainer in Nifty Midcap 100 space is Quess Corp, the stock gained almost 9% whereas Mindtree dragged around 15% during the week.
The crude oil benchmark indices Brent crude increased $2.49/barrel and Indian Rupee is closed almost flat last week. FIIs are the net seller so far in July sold almost Rs 3442.14 crore whereas DIIs are the net buyer in the last week bought Rs 4071.19 crore.
Influence of macro data on Indian stock market
As scheduled, Friday after market hours CPI and IIP data were released. The June CPI is increased marginally to 3.18% vs May 3.05% month on month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) shows that food inflation has increased from 1.83 percent to 2.17 percent in June 2019. India’s Industrial Production ( IIP) data eases 3.1% in May from 4.3% MoM. The ease in IIP numbers is due to the slow growth of Primary goods and Capital goods in the month of April. We can see the influence of macro data on the Indian stock market on Monday.
Q1 Earnings of Nifty 50 stocks last week
Tata Consultancy Services on Wednesday posted its 1st Quarterly earnings. The Company reported a profit of Rs 8,131 crore for the June quarter, flat sequentially when compared with the March quarter’s profit of Rs 8126 crore. However, YoY it grew 10.78%. The operating margin stood at 24.2%, while net margin was 21.3%.TCS had posted an operating margin of 25.1% in FY19.
Last Friday, Bank Nifty share price was seen some correction after the announcement of IndusInd result around 2.30pm. The share price of IndusInd bank fell more than 2% today and closed at Rs1509.50 per share on Friday. The Net Profit of IndusInd Bank in Q1 of 2019-20 jumps 38% to 1433 crore. The Net Interest Income (NII) of IndusInd Bank rose to 2844 crore with loan growth at 28 percent.
The net NPA also increased to 1.23% in Q1FY19-20 against 1.2 percent reported in the fourth quarter of FY18-19. A rise in NPAs is due to higher provisioning and contingencies. The asset quality is the only concern due to which the share price has declined today.
Infosys also announced its Q1FY19-20 result after market hours on Friday. For the 1st Quarter net profit was Rs 3802 crore while revenue increased to Rs 21803 crore. A growth of 14% YoY and 1.2% QoQ are seen in Infosys. Infosys also reported highest ever large deal wins with a total contract value of at $2.7 billion. Overall numbers are largely in line with analyst estimates, investors can see the resulting effect on Monday.
Next week’s event in Indian stock market-
Next week Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data will be released on 15th June, on Monday during market hours. Foreign exchange reserve data will be announced next Friday on 19th July. The Nifty 50 stocks that are going to announce their Q1 earnings in the next week are Yes Bank, Wipro, Reliance and HDCF Bank.
Nifty and Bank Nifty future share price target for next week
 |
| Nifty Chart 15th July to 19th July |
Nifty Future Weekly Outlook - OHLC-(11769.90/11770.00/11467.55/11544.35)
Primary Trend: Volatile (Bias Down) – Expected Volatility 13.8112% (Range of 221 Points)
Range Bound Trend: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 11640 whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 11453
If Nifty Future Moves Above 11585 then you should Buy with 1st Target of 11698 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 11450- 11520- 11550- 11625- 11705- 11740 FOR the Target of 11755- 11815- 11885
If Nifty Future Moves Below 11510 then you should Sell with 1st Target of 11395 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 11650- 11575- 11530- 11460- 11385- 11345 FOR the Target of 11340- 11280- 11210
 |
| Bank Nifty Chart 15th July to 19th July |
Bank Nifty Future Weekly Outlook - OHLC-(31300.00/31373.00/30412.00/30600.50)
Primary Trend: Volatile (Bias Down) - Expected Volatility 14.5594% (Range of 617 Points)
Range Bound Trend: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 30915, whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 30320
If Bank Nifty Future Moves Above 30730 then you should Buy with 1st Target of 31095 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 30300- 30525- 30575- 30900- 31125- 31275 FOR the Target of 31280- 31465- 31690
If Bank Nifty Future Moves Below 30500 then you should Sell with 1st Target of 30135 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 30950- 30700- 30575- 30350- 30100- 29975 FOR the Target of 29955- 29770- 29540
Conclusions:
Nifty and Bank Nifty chart is indicating a volatile (bias down) in next week. Infosys result which was announced after the market on last Friday is in line with analyst estimate, the market will react on the result. Indian stock market will also react to marginally higher CPI and eased IIP numbers. The retail inflation rate is RBI’s comfort zone.
If WPI number which would be released on Monday is also under control then the market may expect another rate cut in next RBI monetary policy. In such scenario, we can see some positive movement in Bank Nifty share price particularly in PSU Banks. Traders are advised to be cautious on Monday around 12 pm at the time of WPI numbers announcement.
Please share your opinion and views about the article. If you like the article please share with others
Happy Investing!
Finogyan Team
Disclaimer-Finogyan has taken due care and caution in compilation of data for its blog. The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Finogyan are their own and not that of the website or its management. Finogyan is not SEBI registered Advisors and advises users to check with certified and SEBI registered experts before taking any investment decision. However, Finogyan does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Finogyan especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website.
