After two consecutive sessions of losses, the Indian stock market ended on a positive note last Friday. On a weekly basis, Sensex was up 190 points and closed at 38862.23 and Nifty gained 43 points and closed at 11665.95. A profit booking was seen in the Bank Nifty after the RBI Monetary policy. In the end, Bank Nifty was down 342 points on a weekly basis and closed at 30084. All levels are on a spot basis.
Last week on the first few days the benchmark indices touched a record high. Later after Skymets prediction of a below normal monsoon and 25 bps rate cut in RBI Monetary Policy, some profit booking was seen. On a weekly basis, the rupee ended marginally lower at 69.22 on 5th April against the March 29 closing of 69.15. The reason for weakness in the rupee is because of increase in Brent Crude oil price which has touched USD 70 per barrel.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net buyers in the Indian stock market so far in the month of April. FIIs bought equities worth Rs 973.38 cr so far whereas Domestic Institutional Investors sold Rs 670.76 cr in April. If FIIs continues this kind of buying spree in the market you can expect bullish market ahead in Indian stock market.
Sectors Outlook for The Indian Stock Market
We have seen rally mainly in Banking sectors both in PSU as well as Pvt Banking space, realty, energy, and infrastructure. As we entered the most volatile phase of the equity market of 2019 i.e voting and Q4 earning session together, we may see some correction in the above sectors now. Some positive action can be seen in FMCG, Pharma, auto and IT which showed no rally in the last month.
Nifty 50 Stocks Top Gainers and Losers of the week
| Nifty 50 Stocks-Top 5 Gainers of the Week | |||||
| Company Name | LTP (Rs ) | Prev Close (Rs ) | Change (Rs ) | Change (%) | 52 week H/L( Rs) |
| Tata Motors | 205.15 | 174.25 | 30.90 | 17.73 | 372.35-129.00 |
| Bharti Airtel | 356.65 | 333.10 | 23.55 | 7.07 | 427.40-276.85 |
| Maruti Suzuki | 7107.70 | 6672.55 | 435.15 | 6.52 | 9,929.00-6,317.70 |
| Tata Steel | 549.30 | 521.00 | 28.30 | 5.43 | 647.60-441.35 |
| Indiabulls Hous. | 903.05 | 858.25 | 44.80 | 5.22 | 1,397.00-575.3 |
| Nifty 50 Stocks-Top 5 Losers of the Week | |||||
| Company Name | LTP (Rs ) | Prev Close (Rs ) | Change (Rs ) | Change (%) | 52 week H/L( Rs) |
| B P C L | 358.10 | 397.55 | -39.45 | -9.92 | 454.50-238.55 |
| Zee Entertainment | 411.50 | 445.50 | -34.00 | -7.63 | 609.75-288.30 |
| Sun Pharma.Inds. | 463.15 | 478.85 | -15.70 | -3.28 | 679.30-370.20 |
| Titan Company | 1106.40 | 1141.85 | -35.45 | -3.10 | 1,152.00-732.30 |
| Yes Bank | 266.85 | 275.10 | -8.25 | -3.00 | 404.00-146.75 |
The Event for Next Week to Influence the Indian Stock Market
The Lok Sabha election voting will be started from the 11th of April, the market will keep track of the event closely. The Q4 earning session has started, next week Infosys and TCS will announce their Q4 earnings on the same day on 12th of April. The Industrial Production YoY Feb( IIP) and Inflation rate (CPI), data will be announced after the market hours on 12th April.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Future Technical analysis
 |
| Indian stock market Nifty target for the week |
Nifty Weekly Outlook - OHLC-(11719.20/11834.15/11641.45/11760.75)
Primary Trend: Volatile (Bias Up) – Expected Volatility of 12.825% (Range of 210 Points)
Range Bound Trend: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 11835 whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 11715
If Nifty Moves Above 11797 then you should Buy with 1st Target of 11870 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 11700- 11750- 11775- 11825- 11875- 11900 FOR the Target of 11900- 11945- 11990
If Nifty Moves Below 11750 then you should Sell with 1st Target of 11675 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 11850- 11790- 11775- 11725- 11675- 11650 FOR the Target of 11640-11605-11560
 |
| Indian stock market Bank Nifty target for the week |
Bank Nifty Weekly Outlook - OHLC-(30594.90/30811.95/30028.00/30316.50)
Primary Trend: Volatile (Bias Up) - Expected Volatility of 17.2522% (Range of 725 Points)
Range Bound Trend: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 30615, whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 30125
If Bank Nifty Moves Above 30460 then you should Buy with 1st Target of 30760 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 30100- 30300- 30425- 30600- 30800- 30900 FOR the Target of 30915- 31060- 31245
If Bank Nifty Moves Below 30275 then you should Sell with 1st Target of 29975 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 30625- 30450- 30325- 30140- 29950- 29850 FOR the Target of 29825- 29675- 29500
Conclusion:
The Primary trend of both Nifty and Bank Nifty are positive but the market will remain volatile during the week. On the global front, the increase in Brent Crude Oil price is a concern. If Crude oil price increase further Indian rupee will depreciate and its impact would be negative for the market. There is a positive development in the US-China Trade talk, any further positive development can cheer the global as well as Indian stock market.
On the domestic front Voting is going to start from the 11th April so traders should keep track of any development on that. Indian stock market wants a stable government for a long term bull market. IT sector would be volatile in the last two days of the week due to the result of Infosys and TCS on the 12th of April.
Also, read the article Should you follow the global market like Dow Jones, Sgx Nifty, etc to trade in India?
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Happy Investing!
Finogyan Team
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